One of the main themes at CES 2024 was the comeback of hydrogen and fuel cell powertrains. Hydrogen-powered trucks from Nikola and PACCAR, Bosch Mobility’s plans to debut a hydrogen combustion engine by year end, and Hyundai’s long-term vision of “an entire hydrogen energy ecosystem” spotlighted the transformative potential of hydrogen powertrains for the trucking industry.
Already, demand for fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) trucks is steadily rising. However, rather than compete with pure battery electric variants, fuel cell trucks are anticipated to complement them. Each will find appropriate use cases and niche applications based on the inherent advantages that they offer.
For instance, large-volume hydrogen storage will support improved range, making fuel cell trucks a good choice for long-haul transport applications. Compactness, lower battery weight, and high energy density will emphasize enhanced payload carrying capabilities, making fuel cell trucks suitable for weight-dependent applications. Faster refueling will translate to faster turnaround times, making hydrogen fuel cell trucks ideal for applications with tight operational requirements, such as logistics.
For more information about this market, please access our research reports, Growth Opportunities in the North American Hydrogen Infrastructure Market for Trucks and Global Fuel Cell Trucks Growth Opportunities or contact sathyanarayanak@frost.com for information on a private briefing.
Heavy-Duty (HD) FCEV Trucks to Take the Lead
Frost & Sullivan anticipates heavy-duty (HD) FCEV trucks in operation to register a CAGR of 55.3% from 2025 to 2035. In contrast, medium-duty (MD) FCEV trucks are likely to grow at a more sedate CAGR of 40.9% over the same time period. Corresponding to the unique advantages offered by FCEVs, long-haul applications are projected to account for 75% of the HD FCEV truck segment by 2035.
By 2035, over 336,000 HD and MD HCEV trucks are collectively expected to be in operation. Invariably, this will mean surging demand for hydrogen and refueling stations. Frost & Sullivan projects the daily hydrogen demand for medium and high-duty FCEV trucks to touch nearly 12,000 tons by 2035 even as the number of hydrogen refueling stations expands to more than 7,200.
Stakeholder Collaboration will be Critical to Market Take-off
While hydrogen powertrains for the trucking industry offer tremendous growth opportunities, stakeholders will need to first address major challenges related to infrastructure technology, supply chain, and mass commercialization. On the manufacturing side, companies like Hyundai, Hyzon, Nikola, Toyota, Quantron, Great Wall, SAIC, FAW, Changan, Volvo, MAN, and Kenworth, among others, are actively engaged in developing FCEV trucks.
For market take-off, stakeholder collaboration at multiple levels will be critical to generating more use cases, strengthening the value chain, reinforcing ecosystem expansion and diversification. For instance, strategic collaborations between fuel cell truck OEMs and relevant stakeholders—whether energy companies, key equipment manufacturers, or green hydrogen producers—will facilitate expansion of hydrogen refueling stations.
Such infrastructure development will need to be reinforced by a continued thrust on technology innovation. This, in turn, will require a partnership approach. Indeed, both established truck manufacturers and startups have forged strategic partnerships to accelerate the commercialization of hydrogen trucks.
In essence, strategic partnerships will underpin hydrogen ecosystem expansion and diversification, while sparking whitespace growth opportunities.
With inputs from Amrita Shetty, Senior Manager – Communications & Content, Mobility
